Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, said that today's key data is retail sales, which shows that the pulse of the U.S. consumer is clearly much stronger than expected. This reduces fears of a recession and is good news for the stock market, but may not be good news for the bond market. With this report, we're back to square one, with the Fed likely to cut rates by 25 basis points in September. The odds of a bigger 50 basis point cut are diminishing. Retail sales today are positive for corporate America. That means consumers aren't hibernating. That bodes well for corporate earnings, but it raises alarm in terms of what the Fed will or won't do.