Greeks.live: Option IV expiring on November 8 is significantly higher than other terms, and investor confidence is seriously lacking
Greeks.live analyst Adam released his crypto market outlook for the week (September 2-8).
On Monday (September 2), the US stock market will be closed for one day. On Wednesday (September 4), the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision. On Thursday (September 5), three important data will be ushered in: the number of Americans who filed initial jobless claims for the week, the number of ADP jobs in the United States in August, and the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book of economic conditions. Friday (September 6) is the most important day of the week. The US unemployment rate and the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls data will be released in August, along with the speeches of Federal Reserve officials. At present, the market expects a 70% probability of interest rate cuts of 25 basis points and a 30% probability of interest rate cuts of 50 basis points. If the economic data is under pressure this month, there is indeed a possibility of interest rate cuts of 50Bp.
The cryptocurrency market is currently performing weakly. September has always been a poor month, and this year is no exception. Ethereum (ETH) is the weakest, and the gas fee has hit a record low of only 0.6Gwe. The weakness of ETH has existed since the second half of this year, and there are no signs of improvement at present. In the option market, investor confidence is seriously insufficient. The implied volatility of each term is relatively stable. The medium and long term continues to decline slightly, and the short and medium term rebounds slightly. It is worth noting that the implied volatility of options expiring on November 8 is significantly higher than that of other terms. In view of the current performance of ETH, investors can consider the put ratio spread or the cross-currency short exchange rate strategy.