ING sees a slightly higher probability of a 25 basis point cut by the Fed, but will send a dovish signal while remaining cautious. This could include some commissioners voting for a 50 basis point cut, and Powell opening the door to a large-scale cut in the future. A 25 basis point cut could cause the dollar to rise, however, if our expectation that Powell will hold a dovish press conference is correct, then it may be difficult for the dollar to maintain its gains in the short term. If the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points, it will cause panic and weaken the dollar. Powell, then, needs to show that a 50 basis point rate cut is not a "panic" move, that is, the Fed is not overly concerned about a recession and the job market. ING said the euro was likely to swing in a narrow range against the dollar ahead of the Fed's later meeting, when a rate cut of 25 basis points or 50 basis points would be very close. Francisco Pesole, analyst at ING, said in a note: "If the Fed cuts rates by 50 basis points and the market interprets it as a panic move, dollar weakness could be transmitted through the euro, yen and Swiss franc, while risk-sensitive currencies such as the Norwegian krone and the Swedish krona could be hit." However, he said the Fed should cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which could send the euro initially below $1.10, but could gradually recover in the coming days.