• 34ºc, Sunny

Analysis: The dollar still has a lot of room to fall

Adam Button, chief FX analyst at financial website Forexlive, said Powell has been dovish throughout his tenure, a point he highlighted today. It is clear that Powell does not want to get behind the curve in the rate-cutting cycle and has decided to pre-empt it. He made it clear at the Jackson Hole conference that he does not want to see the labor market deteriorate further, and expects another 50 basis point rate cut in November if there is further weakness in the jobs data. Until recently, the market believed in "dollar exceptionalism", believing that U.S. economic growth would perform well and interest rates would remain higher than elsewhere. It is now clear that the Federal Reserve will cut rates as fast as other G10 central banks, if not faster. So if the Fed keeps doing this, there's plenty of room for the dollar to fall. Overall, this rate cut is a bold move, and I think history will judge it right. The bond market suggests that the fight against inflation has been won, and rates have room to fall all the way to 3 percent before the Fed has to stop and think.