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Goldman Sachs, Citi and Morgan Stanley predict divergent paths for future Fed rate cuts

Several major Wall Street brokerages have mixed forecasts for the future path of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Bank of America forecasts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in the fourth quarter of 2024, and further 125 basis points in 2025, with the target rate falling to 2.75% -3.00%. Goldman Sachs expects a 25 basis point rate cut per meeting from November 2024 to June 2025, with an end point rate of 3.25% -3.50%. Citi maintained its 2025 rate cut forecast, but cut the rate cut in December 2024 to 25 basis points. Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to implement multiple 25 basis point rate cuts by mid-2025. Wells Fargo warned that market uncertainty is extremely high and that a rate cut could be between 150 and 350 basis points, depending on the economic landing.