According to the Polymarket prediction market, Trump and Biden may not shake hands in the first debate of the 2024 presidential campaign. The market contract currently believes that the probability of a handshake event occurs is only 32%. Since 2016, the tradition of handshakes has been discontinued due to the sharpening debate. Meanwhile, Manifold Markets predicts that the Guardian may correct an article that is not conducive to the prediction market, with an 84% chance of occurrence.