According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in August is 90.7%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 9.3%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 39%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 55.7%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 5.3%.