On October 24th, Jean Boivin of the BlackRock Investment Institute said that the market underestimated the risk of someone among the US presidential candidates challenging the election results next month. A controversial victory could lead to "weeks of very messy legal battles", which could shake risk assets. While stocks remain near all-time highs, Treasuries have already been hit by the sell-off. Trying to trade the US election is "stupid" and the real thing to focus on is the controversial election scenario, which the market does not fully reflect. If investors want to prepare for a certain situation, the controversial US election result is one of them. With the race so tight, it is increasingly likely that voters and investors will wait until after election night to find out the outcome - especially if any candidate chooses to challenge the vote count in key swing states.