According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in August is 89.7%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 10.3%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 32.3%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 61.1%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 6.6%.