Analysis: This US presidential election is crucial for the Federal Reserve and its Chairperson Powell
While the Federal Reserve has been as far removed from politics as possible in 2024, Tuesday's presidential election is crucial for the central bank and its chairperson, Jerome Powell. The next US president will fill several vacant positions, and Powell's term as Fed chairperson will end in May 2026. Trump or Harris will be able to choose the next leader of the Federal Reserve.
Mark Spindel, chief investment officer at Potomac River Capital and a historian of the Fed and politics, noted in a recent interview that this was "an important fork in the road for the Fed", adding that if the Trump team wins, they clearly "will be very proactive". During his presidency, Mr. Trump has frequently attacked Mr. Powell and publicly pushed the central bank to do what he wants, even hinting at negative interest rates, and he has hinted that he might do more if he gets a second term.
Fed policymakers will also have a chance to discuss the implications this week, as the FOMC meets in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday and Thursday. The main issue for officials is whether to cut interest rates for the second time in 2024. Markets expect the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points this week, but politics will certainly be on their minds as well.