Next week's macro outlook: The Federal Reserve enters a regular quiet period, CPI data may recreate the suspense of interest rate cuts
On December 7th, the much-watched US non-farm payrolls data for November this week was better than expected, but it was not hot enough to prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates again later this month. The market pushed the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December to around 90%. At the same time, more and more Federal Reserve officials are inclined to cut interest rates cautiously. The US inflation data in the coming week is the only important data that could shake the Federal Reserve's December rate cut expectations. After the data showed that the US labor market is still strong but there are also signs of slowing, Federal Reserve officials seem to be on track to cut interest rates this month, but the debate about the possible suspension of interest rate cuts next year is on the table. Policymakers speaking ahead of the Federal Reserve's quiet period generally said they expected interest rates to continue falling while remaining cautious about the pace of rate cuts. Here are the key points that markets will focus on in the coming week:
Monday 9:30, China's November CPI annual rate;
Monday 23:00, the monthly rate of wholesale sales in the United States in October;
Tuesday at 0:00, the New York Fed's one-year inflation forecast for November.
Wednesday at 21:30, the US November CPI and core CPI;
Thursday 21:30, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States until December 7; the annual and monthly rates of PPI in the United States in November;
On Friday at 1:00, the Federal Reserve announced the flow of funds in the account for the third quarter of 2024.
Friday at 21:30, the monthly rate of the US import price index for November.