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Mitsubishi UFJ: The dollar will strengthen in the first half of 2025

Lee Hardman, FX analyst at MUFG, said the dollar should strengthen in the first half of 2025, buoyed by the likely swift implementation of tariffs by US President-elect Trump and the limited prospect of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. More upfront tariff hikes support the bank's forecast for further dollar strength in the first half of the year. In addition, the Fed sent a clear signal in December that they would be much more cautious in further rate cuts this year. In contrast, other major central banks are expected to continue cutting interest rates, a divergence that could prompt further dollar strength in the short term.