According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in August is 90.7%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 9.3%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 37.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 57.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 5.5%.