Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said continued, large-scale tariff increases could cause supply chain disruptions again and push up inflation. In a note prepared for the event in Detroit, Goolsbee warned against assuming that tariffs do not trigger inflation. He listed several lessons from the epidemic, among which supply-side disruptions, including supply chains, are the most important driver of inflation and contribute to economic overheating during and after the COVID-19 pandemic shock. " If we see inflation rising or progress stalling in 2025, the Fed will be in a tough position trying to figure out whether the source of inflation is overheating or tariffs, "Goolsbee said." That distinction is critical in determining when or even whether the Fed should act. "