QCP: Without a specific catalyst, cryptocurrency movements are more driven by macroeconomic factors
On February 17th, QCP released a daily report saying that as the market continues to trade sideways, BTC's market dominance has risen to about 60%, close to a four-year high, while ETH and other counterfeit products continue to perform poorly. The LIBRA chive cutting scandal that occurred last weekend, involving Argentine President Millai, does not bode well for similar projects or those looking forward to the counterfeit products/Meme Coin Season. As BTC stabilizes back to the middle of the range, implied volatility continues to decline, which is not surprising as the 7-day actual volatility has declined. In the absence of a significant cryptocurrency-specific catalyst, the price movement appears to be driven more by macroeconomic factors, especially the correlation between BTC and the US stock market remains stable. However, it is worth noting that cryptocurrency implied volatility and VIX are still trading at low levels, despite facing macro uncertainties (tariffs, debt ceiling, inflation, etc.) and the unpredictability of Trump. BTC's impact on recent macro data is relatively unaffected, and non-position squaring contracts (OI) have not recovered significantly since expiring at the end of January. This suggests that the cryptocurrency options market is waiting on the sidelines for specific policy changes, not just pro-cryptocurrency rhetoric. The current level of volatility is similar to last year's Q2-Q3 period, when BTC struggled to break out of a multi-month range. Instead, much of the flow is focused on short-term options selling, or trying to trade ranges, rather than setting up for a big breakout.