The current market is in a dangerous bubble zone, and cryptocurrencies may become a new systemic risk tipping point
On February 18, according to a report by DL News, Wolfgang Münchau, co-founder and director of Eurointelligence and a financial columnist, published a new analysis article that points out that the current market is in a dangerous bubble zone, and cryptocurrencies may become the trigger for the next round of financial crisis.
The article points out three risk factors:
The market valuation of Meme Coin has reached 80 billion US dollars, of which Dogecoin accounts for about half of the market value, and TRUMP market value has reached 3.80 billion US dollars. Although the scale is not enough to threaten the global financial system, it has caused negative effects in markets such as Argentina.
With a market capitalization of $225 billion, stablecoins face significant systemic risks. Since stablecoin reserves are mainly allocated to short-term US Treasury bonds, if rising inflation prompts the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, the value of reserve assets will fall sharply. This risk of asset-liability mismatch is similar to the 1997 Asian financial crisis.
The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio (CAPE) of the S & P 500 index is close to 40, approaching the all-time high of the Internet bubble. AI concept stocks represented by Nvidia may repeat the history of the technology stock bubble in the late 1990s.
Münchau believes that these three seemingly independent bubbles may merge into a "super bubble". Trump-related policies (such as trade wars, excessive tax cuts), cryptocurrency deregulation, and other factors may become tipping points, and form a domino effect in the global financial system through rising inflation, bond market collapse, stablecoin crisis, etc. The transmission mechanism similar to the 2008 financial crisis may be repeated.