Nomura analysts said in a research note that Trump is unlikely to follow through on all tariff threats. After delaying auto tariffs on Canada and Mexico for a month, there are already signs that Trump will back away from imposing 25% tariffs on the two countries. As Trump uses some of his tariffs as a negotiating tool, the conflict could ebb and flow between escalation and demotion. But Trump's behavior in his first term shows that he is willing to escalate the trade conflict despite market weakness and volatility. Trump's actions so far have made Nomura skeptical of a quick de-escalation. (Kim Ten)