The European Union's new round of tariffs against Russia has once again become a footnote to the changing times of global economic and trade relations, and the characteristics of agricultural products being politicized and weaponized are further highlighted. In addition, Russia is also adopting export restrictions. The restructuring of global commodity supply chains and trade protectionism have become the underlying logic of the current global inflation resilience, and they are characterized by medium intensity but long duration and strong resilience. In addition, unusual changes in the climate have also attracted market attention, as heavy rains in West Africa and subsequent heatwaves have led to lower cocoa production. Extreme drought in South East Asia has led to lower coffee bean production. Cocoa and coffee prices have risen sharply this year. Affected by bad weather and disease, Brazil, the world's largest exporter of orange juice, has poor harvest prospects and orange juice prices have reached a record high. Climate change is also driving up freight costs, as low water levels in the Panama Canal prompt shippers to switch to longer routes. All of this makes us cautious about the "big supply" narrative of agricultural products.