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Analysts: Dollar plunge fuels bitcoin bull market, but other indicators are worrying

On March 10, RealVision crypto analyst Jamie Coutts said that a weaker dollar could drive bitcoin stronger, but there are two key indicators that could raise concerns in the short term. Although my framework is becoming bullish as the dollar plummets, two indicators still raise alarms: U.S. Treasury volatility (MOVE index) and corporate bond spreads. Coutts has described bitcoin as a game with central banks, and despite these worrying indicators, the overall outlook remains cautiously bullish. The MOVE index is a measure of expected volatility in the US Treasury market. Coutts observed that the MOVE index is currently stable but on an upward trend. Rising Treasury volatility could lead to further tightening of liquidity, while corporate bond spreads have widened for three consecutive weeks. A reversal in major corporate bond spreads usually coincides with a peak in bitcoin prices. Coutts concluded that, overall, these indicators are a negative signal for bitcoin. However, the decline of the dollar - one of the largest monthly depreciations in the past 12 years - remains the main driver in my framework.