Opinion: The expected shift in risk appetite due to the US recession is the reason for this round of decline in US stocks and cryptocurrencies
According to The Kobeissi Letter, the real reason for the market's decline is a sudden shift in risk appetite. In just a few days, the market has gone from extreme greed to extreme fear. Positioning is so polarized that market sentiment has shifted in the exact opposite direction. Regardless of fundamentals, sentiment is the ultimate driver of any market price.
When sentiment shifts quickly, outflows hit record highs, triggering the flash crash we've seen. Data shows that institutional capital exited before tech stocks fell. Healthfund holdings in the seven largest U.S. stocks (Magnificent 7) will fall to their lowest level in 22 months going into 2025. Cryptocurrency fund outflows hit a record $2.60 billion in the last week of February. That's about $500 million more than the record set in 2024.