Economists at JPMorgan Chase, the Wall Street investment bank, raised the risk of a recession this year to 40% from 30% in early 2025. Due to the extreme policies of the United States, we believe that the risk of a recession in the United States this year is very high. Morgan Stanley economists last week downgraded their growth forecasts and raised their inflation forecasts. The bank forecasts GDP growth of just 1.5 per cent in 2025, falling to 1.2 per cent in 2026. In addition, Goldman Sachs economists also raised the 12-month probability of a recession from 15 per cent to 20 per cent. They said forecasts could rise further if the Trump administration sticks to policy despite worse data.