Mr. Summers, the former US Treasury secretary, said there was an almost 50 per cent chance of the US economy slipping into recession this year because of a series of policy measures taken by the Trump administration that are eroding confidence. "We have a real problem of uncertainty that is very difficult to resolve," Mr. Summers said in an interview. "It is almost certain that growth will be slower than expected and the chance of a recession is close to 50 per cent." Mr. Summers weighed in on the combination of big immigration restrictions, federal government job cuts and the damage to US competitiveness from President Donald Trump's tariffs that have transformed the outlook for the US economy.