Analysts warn bitcoin price may have reached "cycle peak"
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, said indicators on the multi-necklace showed "signs of weakness" in bitcoin prices. Here are three key reasons:
1. Long-Term Holder Inflation Near Threshold: Bitcoin Long-Term Holder (LTH) inflation is steadily rising, approaching the 2.0 threshold, which usually signals a high probability of a cycle top. The current value is 1.9, indicating increased market pressure.
2. The Dormancy Flow indicator is rising: The Dormancy Z-score has risen sharply over the past three months, indicating a higher average age of spending Bitcoin. The peak of this indicator usually signals the arrival of the top of the cycle and is currently structurally similar to the tops of 2017 and 2021.
3. Surge in spending: The sudden increase in spending of Bitcoin over 7-10 years shows the risk area. The increase in spending in 2024 indicates that the cycle is progressing rapidly. In addition, more than $9 billion of Bitcoin was moved by addresses held for more than a decade, in part due to Mt. Gox's readiness to repay creditors.
The market is worried that Mt. Gox will release 142,000 bitcoins (~ $9 billion), which may increase the selling pressure. Nonetheless, payment options and institutional ownership for long-term holders may ease this pressure.