According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in August is 91.7%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 8.3%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 31.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 63.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 5.5%.