According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in August is 91.2%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 8.8%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 27.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 66.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 6.1%.