"Federal Reserve mouthpiece" Nick Timiraos said that the unemployment rate in the United States rose from 3.96% in May to 4.05% in June. The data is up 0.22% since March (3.83%). From the Sam rule, the 3-month average is up 0.42% from the 12-month low, which is getting closer to the 0.5% threshold. The connotation of the "Sam rule" is that when the 3-month average of the unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage points above the 12-month low, the economy is in recession.