According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in August is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 6.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 24.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 70.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 5.0%.