According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in August is 94.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 5.7%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 0.0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 88.7%, the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 11.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 basis point cut is 0.3%.