According to its latest analysis, global rating agency Moody's expects the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates by 25 basis points as early as its July 30-31 meeting. Madhavi Bokil, senior vice president at Moody's Ratings, said the CPI data confirms our view that the higher-than-expected Quarter 1 inflation data was a one-off. The rapidly cooling labor market suggests that the impact of tighter monetary policy is growing. If the FOMC decides to keep rates on hold at its July meeting, the labor market could weaken further, increasing the likelihood of a significant 50 basis point rate cut in September. The agency expects the Fed to cut interest rates by a cumulative 50-75 basis points this year and another 100-125 basis points by 2025.