According to the CME Federal Reserve, the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 95.3%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 4.7%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 1.9%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 93.5%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 4.6%.