According to the CME "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in August is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 2.6%. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 3.9%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 93.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut is 2.5%.