CME Federal Reserve observation data shows that: The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 93.3%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 6.7%. The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged through September is 0%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 89.6%, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points is 10.2%, and the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 75 basis points is 0.3%.