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DBS Bank: Dollar outlook clouded

Philip Wee, Senior FX Strategist at DBS, noted that while the futures market sees a more than 100% chance of a Fed rate cut in September, the twists and turns of the US presidential election and the positioning squaring of the yen carry trade have clouded the outlook for the dollar. In addition, the yen and the Swiss franc have emerged as safe haven currencies against the backdrop of a sell-off in technology stocks. At the July FOMC meeting, the Fed should leave the door open for a rate cut, but avoid supporting market bets on a September rate cut. Following the release of the US unemployment data on August 2 and the CPI data on August 14, the Fed may give timing guidance at the Jackson Hole symposium.