Barclays expects Trump's victory to drive up interest rate volatility, while Harris expects the opposite
Interest rate strategists at Barclays have come up with fresh ideas for the so-called "Trump trade" and also introduced a possible "Harris trade". Research published on Tuesday by Amrut Nashikkar and Maria Chiara Russo shows that interest rate volatility typically rises in the three months after a challenger wins the presidential election. However, interest rate volatility falls when the White House remains in the hands of the incumbent president's party. So far, Wall Street has focused on trades that could perform well after Republican Trump's re-election, including bets on higher longer-term bond yields in response to an expected looser fiscal policy. Citing past market reactions to White House changes, Barclays' report expects "implied volatility for bonds in the belly of the yield curve to rise".