Barclays said we now expect the Federal Reserve's FOMC to cut rates three times this year by 25 basis points each in September, November and December. We assume that the labour market will show continued resilience in the August report and that the unemployment rate will stop rising. Based on this assumption, we currently believe that a 50 basis point cut in September is unjustified. However, if the unemployment rate rises further, then it will raise concerns that the labour market is cooling faster than expected. Looking ahead to 2025, we expect the unemployment rate to gradually decline to 4.2% and the inflation forecast to remain unchanged. We continue to expect the FOMC to cut interest rates three times in March, June, and September next year, and expect that concerns about the lack of further progress on inflation in the second half of 2025 will cause the FOMC to pause interest rate cuts after the federal funds rate band reaches 3.75-4%. Longer term, we continue to see the neutral rate at around 3.00-3%.