On February 18th, QCP Capital's latest analysis pointed out that the term structure of the options market is significantly distorted near the March expiration date, especially on Ethereum options, which may reflect the market's layout for the Ethereum Pectra upgrade, which is currently in the testing phase and is expected to go live in early April. Looking back at past upgrades, the September 2022 merger upgrade followed a typical "buy expectations sell facts" pattern, with ETH falling back after the upgrade after rising more than 100% from its June low. In contrast, Shanghai Upgrade, which launched the pledge withdrawal function in April 2023, encountered pessimism due to concerns about oversupply. However, once the market discovered that selling pressure did not materialize as expected, ETH rose 30% in the following months. As escalation expectations heat up, traders may be positioning themselves for another volatility event, with option volatility after March 28 skewed in favor of call options - which could set the stage for the crypto market's next layout theme in the wake of Trump's tariffs. One dampening factor is the general weakness in the counterfeit products market - the LIBRA crash, SOL and ETH falling back to pre-election levels, and Bitcoin's share of market capitalization near all-time highs. In addition to market catalysts, a sustained recovery of counterfeit products may require substantial progress in practical applications and network development, rather than relying solely on speculative flows.