On March 10, according to Cointelegraph, although the Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index on March 10 continues to show "extreme fear", a Bitcoin market simulation still predicts a bullish trend in the second half of 2025. Cryptocurrency researcher Mark Quant used Monte Carlo simulation to analyze the Bitcoin price and provide a six-month forecast for the crypto asset. The Monte Carlo model is a computational method that simulates price predictions and assesses risk through random sampling. It can generate multiple possible scenarios based on variables such as volatility, market trends, etc. Based on an initial price of $82,655, the study estimates the average final price of Bitcoin by the end of September 2025 at $258,445. However, from a broader perspective, the bitcoin price is expected to fluctuate between $51,430 (i.e. 5th percentile return) and $713,000 (95th percentile return). However, it is important to note that the Monte Carlo model relies heavily on the Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model, which assumes that asset values follow a random path with constant drift parameters. In this analysis, Bitcoin's inherent volatility is incorporated into the model, capturing long-term historical performance and patterns while adapting to future changes. Essentially, the Monte Carlo analysis is as uncertain as a "roll of the dice". Last week, Quant also highlighted the correlation between total cryptocurrency market capitalization and the Global Liquidity Index, suggesting that total market capitalization could reach new highs above $4 trillion in the second quarter of 2025.