Matrixport: ETF selling pressure appears to have paused for now, and hedge funds may reassess arbitrage opportunities in late March
On March 3rd, Matrixport analysis pointed out that since the launch of Bitcoin ETF in January 2024, the outflow of funds this month has hit a new high, which may be related to hedge fund position squaring basis trading (long ETF, short futures). This trend is consistent with the situation that the unpositioned squaring contract of CME Bitcoin futures decreased by $8 billion after the Federal Reserve's December 2024 FOMC meeting, which exceeded 20% of the total inflow of ETF funds.
In addition, the expiration and delivery of February futures contracts may also be a source of selling pressure, but this factor has now been absorbed by the market. Matrixport believes that as the impact fades, hedge funds may reduce ETF selling and reassess arbitrage opportunities in late March. For now, ETF selling pressure appears to have temporarily stopped.