Economists at JPMorgan, the Wall Street investment bank, raised the risk of a US recession this year to 40 per cent from 30 per cent in early 2025. "Due to extreme US policies, we believe the risk of a US recession this year is high," the analysts wrote. The news follows news that Morgan Stanley economists last week cut their US growth forecasts and raised their inflation forecasts. The bank forecasts US GDP growth of just 1.5 per cent in 2025 and 1.2 per cent in 2026. Goldman Sachs economists also raised the 12-month recession probability to 20 per cent from 15 per cent.